Translating Financial Headlines & Do the Rich Pay Their Fair Share?
Tooty, the bumbling cop on Car 54 Where Are You (played by comedian Joe E Ross) famously used to start off an excited phrase with his famous “Ooo, Ooo…!” I’m almost tempted to do the same thing when I come across one of “those” headlines — you know the ones — with Ooo, Ooo, the sky is falling!!
Harry Truman famously looked for a one handed economist because all the economic forecasts he received seemed to come down to: “on the one hand, but then again, on the other….” Harry would certainly recognize the current crop of economic and stock forecasters — and still be looking.
When speaking of odds, the bookmakers (and casino owners) appear to be the only ones who really do know what’s happening because they make absolutely no attempt to forecast an outcome. All their odds represent is the current thinking of betters (or scientifically predicable statistics). The odds they set are only designed to attract betters so that they have an even book — in other words, regardless of the outcome those who bet one way are offset by the funds bet by those making an opposite bet and the bookmaker (or casino) cares not about the outcome — only that bets are being made. Kind of sounds like Wall Street, doesn’t it?
BTW, the odds set by the London bookmakers about BREXIT fully illustrated how wrong the public was since the odds (representing where most of the money was bet) highly favored a positive Brexit vote.
For today’s lesson, here’s today’s headline:
Morgan Stanley Sees 40% Chance Of A Global Recession In The Next Year
Obviously, Morgan’s analysts and economists have no clue as to what the future holds. Certainly, if they did, they wouldn’t be working in windowless offices eyes focused on LCD’s watching economic numbers roll by, attempting to divine what the future holds — they’d be sitting on some exotic beach, piña colada in hand and ready to execute some brilliant strategy whenever the lightbulb went on in their collective craniums.
So, when you see or hear forecasts such as Morgan’s, think back to ole Harry and his fruitless quest. Or, consider my translation for you of the above headline:
We (and they) don’t know what the hell the future holds! (and if we really did, why would we tell you?)
But it attracts your attention and makes you think they’re much smarter than they really are so they can grab some of your money! Don’t do it! Don’t go there.
Do the Rich Pay Their Fair Share??
WHO are the rich… anyway? Is $150,000 of income considered ‘rich’? Or $250,00? As Marylanders, do you know how much you pay in taxes, on a percentage basis? This short video takes a look at the real numbers – a ‘Who’s Who’ when it comes to income and taxes. When considering retirement, taxes are an important consideration for the ‘where and when’ of making the move. It’s good to have some context, especially with all the media hyperbole and attacks fomenting ‘class warfare’. I’m betting none of you (nor me) want to pay more than we have to…legally.