Where are They Now? Creative Destruction and a Healthy Economy

By |2021-09-21T13:10:48+00:00September 21, 2021|Uncategorized|

As the 2021 pro football season kicks off, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will start at quarterback a man who by all standard measures is middle-aged. But if 44-year-old Tom Brady plays like he did last season, his team should do very well.   Even if you don’t follow sports this is an extraordinary story. Brady’s win in last year’s NFL Championship Game came 19 years after his first Super Bowl win in 2002. The most amazing thing is how little he has seemed to have changed—especially [...]

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The Tumultuous History of the Last Weekend of Summer

By |2021-08-31T11:01:44+00:00August 31, 2021|Uncategorized|

Image from Unsplash.com This coming Labor Day will be characterized by backyard barbecues, back-to-school sales, and many employees enjoying the federal holiday. But few people will stop to consider what this day represents in the transformation of what it means to be an average worker in America. And the tragic history that led to the basic workplace rules we tend to take for granted. Up to the Industrial Revolution (which peaked in the mid-1800s) most Americans worked on farms. It was hard and dangerous [...]

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Hiding in Plain Sight

By |2021-07-27T13:51:04+00:00July 27, 2021|Uncategorized|

In his classic detective story The Purloined Letter, Edgar Allen Poe tells how an embarrassing letter has been stolen (purloined) from the French Queen to be used for blackmail. The authorities believe they know who took it, and order a thorough search of his apartment. The police detectives pull up the carpet, probe seat cushions with needles, and even look behind the wallpaper. But they fail to find the letter. In comes Poe’s protagonist, amateur detective August Dupin, who quickly finds the letter and turns it in to [...]

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Domesticating Your Emotions: Stoic Principles for Investors

By |2021-07-20T13:48:46+00:00July 20, 2021|Uncategorized|

Tony Dungy, who is remarkable for winning a Super Bowl as a player and then doing it again as a head coach, has a simple philosophy for dealing with tough situations. "You can't always control circumstances," says Dungy. "However, you can always control your attitude, approach, and response." This way of thinking is what allowed him to stay calm and think clearly in times when it was tempting to respond emotionally. And it's also a mental discipline practiced by a group of ancient Greek philosophers known [...]

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The Origins of Memorial Day

By |2021-05-13T13:12:05+00:00May 13, 2021|Uncategorized|

In April of 1862, the Confederate Army of the Mississippi attacked the Union Army of the Tennessee, resulting in what was to be known as the Battle of Shiloh. It proved to be the bloodiest engagement of the Civil War up to that point. The nearly 24,000 dead, wounded, captured, or missing totaled almost twice the casualties of any previous battle. Because the engagement was fought near the Tennessee/Mississippi state line, many of the Confederate dead were buried in Columbus, Mississippi. But some Union soldiers were [...]

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The Future Proves Impossible to Predict

By |2020-08-17T12:20:40+00:00August 17, 2020|Uncategorized|

...as hedge funds go from bad to worse. You may have heard of hedge funds but not be entirely sure how they work. In a nutshell a hedge fund is an investment fund that uses complex strategies, is open only to high net worth individuals, has less regulatory oversight than other types of funds, and charges much higher fees. Normally the word “hedge” means to take precautions to lower risk. This was the case when these funds were first developed in the late 1940s to early [...]

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Why Nobody Can Guarantee They Will Beat the Market

By |2020-08-04T12:24:33+00:00August 4, 2020|Uncategorized|

In 1972 the Miami Dolphins had a remarkable run of success. Led by coach Don Shula the team won all 14 of their regular season games and all 3 of their NFL playoff games, including Super Bowl VII. The “Perfect Season” is a feat that's never been repeated, though the New England Patriots came close in 2007. But let's say that a hypothetical friend of yours becomes an NFL coach and one day confides in you that he has a foolproof plan for going undefeated and [...]

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The Biden Tax Hike Would Be Severe

By |2020-07-20T12:26:21+00:00July 20, 2020|Uncategorized|

Today's article is from the WSJ. I'm sharing it because it serves as a 'heads up', and accurately paints the current tax picture and what the potential picture could be, based on recent statements and predictions. When it comes to the stock market, we never make predictions. When it comes to tax policy, being forewarned is being forearmed. **************** Complain if you must, but we live in a Golden Age of Taxes—the lowest rates we may see for decades. President Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs [...]

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If Short-term Predictions are Tricky… What about Long Term Forecasts?

By |2020-07-15T12:29:36+00:00July 15, 2020|Uncategorized|

In their paper Evaluation and Ranking of Market Forecasters a team of statistical researchers from the U.S. and Australia sought to rank the accuracy of 68 prominent financial forecasters. The study looked at 6,627 predictions made over a 14-year period about the S&P 500. The time frame of the predictions varied from three to twelve months. What the study found was that about two-thirds of the forecasters had an accuracy score of less than 50%. Statistically, you'd be better off flipping a coin rather than following their advice. [...]

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The Bumpy Road to the Market’s LTA

By |2020-05-15T12:32:22+00:00May 15, 2020|Uncategorized|

As I've written in many previous email blasts, we're going to be bumping along between a couple 'guard rails' - 23,000 and 24,000 until the market gets some good news. And while we're traveling this crazy road, it's sometimes difficult to see the bigger picture, especially when the media is blaring doom and gloom 24/7. Let's take a look at a little history - perspective - so folks can perhaps breathe a bit easier. At least for this week. Since 1926, the US stock market has [...]

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