At the beginning of every year, market pundits come out of the woodwork to forecast returns for the coming year. Even though there is overwhelming evidence that market forecasting is a fruitless endeavor, legions of investors hang on every word and amend their long-term investment strategies based on short term predictions. This behavior can lead to some very expensive mistakes. An article that reinforces this point recently appeared in the New York Times by Jeff Sommers. It is well worth reading. In fact, you may want [...]

After taking on Jim Cramer for over a decade now - as he pontificated and prognosticated (in my opinion) to the detriment of his viewing investors, it seems I'm finally vindicated. Hopefully, at least, in the eyes of his many devoted acolytes who I've continually heard from over the years. Jim it seems has "converted!" Yes, you read that right. At this point, I can't help being just a tad snarky and self-congratulatory by just putting in a little dig. To wit: based upon his past [...]

Ok, it was another roller coaster day last Friday. And, here's what's interesting. About a week and half ago, I had someone tell me the market was high, so they shouldn't make any changes. And then last week, I had someone say: the market's fallen, so we shouldn't make any changes. Well.... which is it? Too high or too low? What we have here is something called 'recency bias'. "Recency bias" is the phenomenon of a person most easily remembering something that has happened recently, compared to [...]

One of the most challenging aspects of being a prudent investor is recognizing the difference between short-term noise and long-term evidence. With billions of market data points available instantaneously 24/7/365, it’s easy to find yourself measuring what equates to a 26.2-mile journey with a 12” ruler. The investment industry and its corresponding news cycle aren’t much help here. We’re naturally conditioned to look at investment “results” in statistically noisy and historically very short time periods: calendar quarters, calendar years and even 3 to 5-year time frames.    [...]

You've heard about them; they're risky. Few seem to make money for their investors. But they get a lot of attention when they do.  So wouldn't it be interesting to know where hedge fund managers invest their money?  You might be surprised at the answer.    Hedge funds are investment partnerships that employ a fund manager seeking to maximize investor returns, usually through aggressive investing strategies. Aiming for market-beating returns, these investment vehicles often invoke high-risk, complex strategies.       The "hedge" part of their name comes from their practice [...]

Painting the sun room You've all heard that expression... especially when it involves some insane thrill seeker jumping off the edge of a mountain in a squirrel suit, or as I watched more recently, some dare devil racing down a mountain side on a dirt bike, complete with 360s in the air across large spaces! Yikes! Of course, we all know the underlying message is: let the experts handle things you don't have the time or experience for, or interest in.      Well... there I was [...]

We’ve had a nice nine year run up in the market. And you know you’re thinking: “what goes up, must come down”. It sure seems as though the bloom is off the rose for U.S. stock investors. And while experts disagree whether we’re in a bear market, volatility is definitely back in a big way.  I mean, look at this chart of the one year performance of the DOW (last Dec to today, Nov 29, 2018). That - ladies and gentlemen - is a roller coaster ride! [...]

It never ceases to amaze me… that the adage “People and money… are funny,” proves itself over and over again.  Maybe it should be said that some people who deal with money become ‘funny’… in the head! It should not surprise anyone, yet it often comes as a shock that there are people so crooked that they will destroy the livelihoods and lives of others without nary a second thought. We’re talking about fraud and its many faces.  Would you know if you were being defrauded? [...]

I’m going to stir the pot a bit this week.  You know my mantra: no one can predict the market, the price of a stock, a bond or an index.  But sometimes… there’s just that feeling right?  So recently, my husband sent me two articles that contradict each other and I thought we could have some ‘fun’ dissecting them. I know everyone is waiting with baited breath for the market to make up its mind, so we can move on to more important things.  Because so [...]